Thinksmallcell Analyst Spotlight Webinar Jan 2016

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  Leading Small Cell industry analysts share their 5 year forecasts and underlying assumptions, broken down by market segment. A separate Q&A session raises common concerns from the audience, revealing more insight into market dynamics. Scope includes both indoor and outdoor, DAS, Remote Radio Heads and independent Small Cells - pretty much everything apart from today's macrocells. Slide deck online also includes an embedded recording of the webinar itself.
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  • 1. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. ThinkSmallCell Webinar Series Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Rethink Technology Research Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts Jan 2016
  • 2. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Agenda §  IntroducNon, David Chambers, ThinkSmallCell §  Analyst Forecasts and AssumpNons §  Caroline Gabriel, Rethink Research §  Joe Madden, Mobile Experts §  QuesNon and Answer Session §  Conclusion
  • 3. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Small Cells: State of the NaNon Residen'al Enterprise Urban Rural Few new deployments but some surprises (T-Mobile USA) Millions embedded at Free France, saving spectrum/ roaming fees Most lucraNve segment. Split between small/med and med/large Growing credibility for larger buildings Technically viable but held back by logisNcs, planning vs alternaNves Likely to be LTE only, targeYed zones Increased interest although small part of total market Higher RF power and 3G/LTE required PotenNal for upNck with 4G only VoLTE 3G/LTE important Neutral host LogisNcs and 3rd party deployment Regulatory drive for coverage targets
  • 4. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Analyst Viewpoint Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Rethink Research Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
  • 5. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Small Cell Deployment Forecast •  Non-residenNal sites in four categories •  CAGR 66% in total •  Highest growth in urban but criNcal mass driven by enterprise. 75% indoors in 2020 •  Growing variety of cell types and therefore equipment 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ’000 sites Enterprise private Enterprise public Urban public Rural and remote New deployments of small cells (exc WiFi). Source: Rethink Technology Research
  • 6. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. New architectures •  New architectures will help drive growth •  Make small cell plaeorm more adaptable •  By 2020, tradiNonal devices less than 50% •  Advantages of new approaches – virtualizaNon, gateways, C-RAN •  But is everyone always waiNng for the next thing? 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % of sites All-in-one Gateway Distributed radio unit Small cell with DAS New deployments in small cell sites (exc WiFi) by architecture. Source: Rethink Research
  • 7. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Risks to Nmeline •  AlternaNve approaches, even as stopgap •  Urgency of need •  Increasing richness of WiFi •  Wait for virtualizaNon •  Need new cost and service models, mulN-op •  Accelerators – new providers, spectrum, regulaNons, costs 2014 2015 Backhaul availability and cost Large-scale automaNon/SON Securing op'mal sites IntegraNon with other networks Network provisioning and management MoneNzaNon Mone'za'on Backhaul cost and availability Site costs TCO Site acquisi'on Site cost and availability Power availability and cost ROI issues Macro network interworking Spectrum issues Cost of equipment UncertainNes about LTE-A, virtualizaNon Interference Interference
  • 8. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Analyst Viewpoint Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Rethink Research Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
  • 9. About Mobile Experts §  Market Research focused on wireless §  6 Analysts + sales and office staff §  Based in Silicon Valley, Ottawa, NY, London, Boston §  Analysts are 20-year experts in their respective topics §  Strategic Market Analysis §  Macro Base Stations §  Small Cells/DAS/Wi-Fi §  5G §  RF for Mobile Devices and IoT
  • 10. Small Cell Shipment Forecast
  • 11. Capital Spending Macro Small Cell Carrier Wi-Fi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DAS
  • 12. Rise of Enterprise Spending
  • 13. RRH and Non-Residential
  • 14. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. 14 Audience Poll - QuesNon
  • 15. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Q&A Session Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Rethink Research Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
  • 16. © 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd. Audience Poll
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