Operation zarb e-azb, us troops withdrawal &; kunduz operation

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  Strategic thinking for strategically important South Asia. Pakistan free from terrorism and economically prosperous is the requirement of both US and India to save the region from nuclear flash.
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  • 1. OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB, US TROOPS WITHDRAWAL & KUNDUZ OPERATION By Imtiaz Ahmad
  • 2. INTRODUCTION  The emergence of Taliban as belligerents and their cleanup process through operation Rah- e-Rast, Rah-e-Nijat, and finally operation Zarb-e-Azb are no ordinary development in the context of peace in this region.  The Kunduz operation in the wake of the U.S troop withdrawal planned in 2016 are interlinked.  The resurgence of Afghan Taliban isa preemptive action to fill the gaps.  U.S troop withdrawal planned in 2016 is raising many new political and strategic questions.  The first and foremost is that will Russia come back to the Afghanistan to fill the U.S created gaps?  Will ISIS try to fill the gap?  Will Afghan army prevail on all?  Will Afghanistan be divided into provinces?  Will the Afghan government be involved in the war against the Taliban?
  • 3.  Will the 10,000 remaining army of U.S be able to train Afghan forces and Afghan army?  Will Pakistan support the US supported afghan army?  And what will be the future of this region under the following considerations?
  • 4. STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF KUNDUZ  Kunduz is situated away from Durand line beneath the Central Asian states,which can be used as belligerent buffer zone to cut the supply lines of Central Asia and Russia as in the context of stake holders’ interests’ scenario of Afghanistan.  It is a strategic location in Northern Afghanistan, which can be used to have influence inwhole Afghanistan.  Its significance is like Amphal Air Force Base in Burma campaign and Diego Garcia Air Force Base in Indian Ocean.
  • 5. SEVEN CORRIDORS VULNERABILITY  Pakistan and Afghanistan are sharing seven corridors on Pak-Afghan border inKPK like  Chitral  Mohmand Agency  Kurram Agency  Khyber Agency  Bajaur Agency  North Waziristan Agency, and  SouthWaziristan Agency  These seven corridors are infiltration points both for illegal migrants and guerilla warriors.  Eastern borderof Pakistan also has seven corridors four in Sialkot and three at Lahore sector.  The total corridors on both the borders are 14 in total.
  • 6.  The restricted Pak army, whose strength is created only for eastern border is fighting on same length border on the western side besides, Siachen, Sir Creek, and coastal line, besides the internal security etc.  The same corridors mentioned, if areconnected with the CPEC, west ward expansion will become the strength of the country instead of vulnerabilities.
  • 7. SHOW OF TALIBAN’S MILITARY MUSCLE IN AFGHANISTAN  Kunduz occupation is the occupation of strategically most important place in Afghanistan for the future planned operation.  The Operation carried out in Afghan National Armey’s uniforms,using their vehicles, ammunition and weapon indicates all round security elapses and weaknesses on the part of AfghanistanNational Army, security agencies and Establishment.  Such lapses in future will be the cause of any massive disturbance in the country or in the region.
  • 8. DISADVANTAGES OF THE KUNDUZ OCCUPATION  Following are the few strategic disadvantages of Kunduz occupation  Strategic base for assembling and infiltration of foreign Taliban, Daysh or ISIS.  Pak Iran pipe line will be under the direct siege and can be attacked from this point.  CPEC can also be monitored and destabilized from this point.  U.S troops’ withdrawal can also be monitored and attacked from this point.  Weapons, arms and ammunition can be stored here for further supply to Pakistani Talibans.  Pak-Afghan transit trade can also be blocked for further expansion to Central Asia.  Descendants, farraries and criminals can use it as a hideout.
  • 9. POLITICAL & STRATEGIC CLASHES  In order to fill the strategic gap created by the US troops’ withdrawal will certainly sprout into strategic and political clashes between the stake holders like Russia, India, China, and USA.  With theinvolvement of Turkey and Iran, controversies in the Central Asian region will impact and further complicate the issue.  Drugs trafficking, smuggling will get more momentum from the golden crescent of the Pak-Afghan border to the golden triangle of Burma, Laos and Thailand.
  • 10. POLICY OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN  Following are the policy options for Pakistan:  Generation of economic activity in FATA leading into Afghanistan.  Reconstruction of Afghanistan for the repatriation and rehabilitation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan.  Conversion of Frontier Scouts into effective border security force equipped with the air, space and landsurveillance equipment, to control each of the western border corridors.  Prompt construction of garrison in the FATA, on the same lines of eastern border.  Creation of buffer force of the locals to be used against foreign Taliban, ISIS, Daysh or other miscreants forming up against Pakistan army.  Pakistan should support the Afghan Government to diminish the strategic role of Taliban for their greaterpolitical participation in Afghan government affairs.  Strong defense ties with Afghanistan and Russia.
  • 11. POLICY OPTIONS FOR AFGHANISTAN  Following are the policy options for Afghanistan:  Political settlements to replace the strategic developments  Strengthening the Afghan Government for a greater political and economic stability.  Incorporation of Taliban into Government and Political system.  Complete surrender by Taliban to bring peace in the country.  Free and Fair elections with Taliban’s participation as a political entity.  Complete withdrawal of all the foreign forces
  • 12. CONCLUSION  In such circumstances, Pakistan have to think of a strong not weak Afghanistan, which is politicallystable and economically prosperous.  Taliban should be politicized and incorporated in the system to save Afghanistan frombeing divided into provinces.  U.S troops should be safely withdrawn as per Obama’s new extended policy of the U.S troopswithdrawal plan by 2017.  CPEC, Iran Pakistan gas pipeline, political settlement in FATA and Baluchistan in the post OperationZarb-e-Azb scenario are the inevitable problems to be addressed well in time in the context of peace in the region andespecially in Pakistan, whose colossal efforts in shape of military operations and diplomatic maneuver must be materialized.
  • 13.  Any delay in this context will be detrimental for the region and especially Pakistan.  Moreover, the most important at presentfor Pakistan is the elimination of the dispersed presence of Daysh or ISIS before their organization into a formidable armedmilitant force.
  • 14. THANK YOU 
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