Majority World Report 2014

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  1. Majority World Report 2014 @cape Web Summit, Nov 2014 2. It’s a big networked world out there 3. And it’s not one we know well 4. It’s changing and growing…
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  • 1. Majority World Report 2014 @cape Web Summit, Nov 2014
  • 2. It’s a big networked world out there
  • 3. And it’s not one we know well
  • 4. It’s changing and growing incredibly fast
  • 5. And with mobile, it will connect 5.6bn people within 5 years
  • 6. The stakes are high
  • 7. Especially now you can win very big, very fast
  • 8. $3.2bn (Jan 2014) $3.1bn (Apr 2007) $1.65bn (Oct 2006) $966M (Jun 2013)
  • 9. $1bn (Apr 2012) $22bn (Feb 2014) $2bn (Mar 2014)
  • 10. Teenager from NZ went from unknown to 360m views
  • 11. It takes less and less time to create $10bn in value
  • 12. >$5bn rev 4 years old
  • 13. $985m rev (2013) $8.85bn Mkt Cap 10 years
  • 14. $1bn rev $3.2bn M&A 6 years
  • 15. $6.5bn rev $248bn Market Cap 15 years
  • 16. So how is European tech doing? Despite appearances, actually pretty well…
  • 17. Born in Edinburgh $800m round led by Sequoia (Oct 2013)
  • 18. $250m led by TCV (Nov 2013) Born in Stockholm
  • 19. Born in Paris $2bn IPO (Oct 2013)
  • 20. >$3m rev per day 51% for $2bn (Oct 2013) 3 years Born in Helsinki
  • 21. Born in Berlin $700m round led by IVP (Jan 2014)
  • 22. Raised in San Francisco (via Dublin) $80m round led by Founders Fund (Jan 2014)
  • 23. Born in Tel Aviv 4 years $900m M&A (Feb 2014)
  • 24. Born in London & Stockholm $7bn IPO (Mar 2014) 1.2bn games daily >$1.8bn rev (2013)
  • 25. Born in Stockholm $110m round (Mar 2014)
  • 26. Born in Copenhagen $2.4bn IPO (Apr 2014)
  • 27. IPO (May 2014) $1.7bn Market Cap Raised in San Francisco (born in Copenhagen)
  • 28. Born in London $1.6bn IPO (June 2014)
  • 29. Born in London$65m round (June 2014)
  • 30. Born in London $4.5bn IPO (June 2014)
  • 31. Born in Jerusalem $7.6bn IPO (July 2014)
  • 32. Born in Paris $100m raise (July 2014)
  • 33. Born in Stockholm $290m rev $2.5bn M&A (Sept 2014) 4 yrs
  • 34. Born in Berlin $2.3bn rev $6.8bn IPO (Sept 2014)
  • 35. Born in Berlin $2bn raised $8bn IPO (Sept 2014)
  • 36. The sun is out, the sky is blue….
  • 37. But GDP growth is not beautiful in developed economies
  • 38. And people are worried about their futures… To what extent, if at all, do you feel that today’s youth will have had a better or worse life than their parents generations or will it be the same? Ipsos Mori Global Trends 2014
  • 39. They are worried about their jobs….
  • 40. They’re worried about social justice
  • 41. About being able to vote…
  • 42. About machine men & their machine minds…
  • 43. That they won’t have a better life than their parents
  • 44. Education isn’t preparing us for the new Majority World
  • 45. There is a massive gap between what we learn and what we need to learn
  • 46. We are still living in a bubble
  • 47. Forbes 2000 $20tn in market cap More than 80m employees
  • 48. They spend > $1tn a year on IT
  • 49. But technology is not doing much to save them
  • 50. In fact it is turning every sector in the Forbes 2000 upside down
  • 51. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU US In just 20 years, over 220 “Unicorns” have been born
  • 52. But only a few sectors have really been seriously disrupted 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Forbes 2000 Companies Companies Valued over 1$bn Forbes 2000 list, Cruchbase, Aileen Lee’s list, Fred Wilson’s Hackpad and Index’s own research
  • 53. So should Forbes 2000 be investing like Facebook? $85tn global AUM ($12k per human) $266bn FTSE100 ($5k per UK citizen)
  • 54. With so much money at stake who is holding boards and management accountable?
  • 55. One easy piece of advice……
  • 56. We know 7% of small companies create >50% of new jobs .
  • 57. Start ups can create enormous value in a very short time 1978 1981 1987 1995 1995 1997 1999 1999 2005 serving >1bn customers creating 440k new jobs with $545bn in new annual revenue and $1.4tn in new market value Source: HIS Global Insight 21% US GDP
  • 58. Maybe that’s why 55m people on Facebook are interested in “Entrepreneurship”
  • 59. Millennial Manifesto is going global…
  • 60. New entrepreneurs can come from anywhere 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% Percentage of cities population who are interested in Entrepreneurship Data from the facebook API, looking at pages people like, posts Dublin Tel Aviv Manila Sydney Sao Paolo London Stockholm Jakarta San Francisco NYC Palo Alto Delhi Boston Berlin Paris
  • 61. Becoming an entrepreneur is going mainstream
  • 62. But Europe’s great universities are almost nowhere in supporting this movement PitchBook Report of Top 50 Universities for VC backed Companies
  • 63. So how should you think about catching the wave?
  • 64. Aim high and shoot for the moon
  • 65. Remember #risk62 – you will lose most of your time and money 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 x<0.5 0.5<=x<1 x=1 1<x<2 2<=x<5 x>=5 % Cost % Value
  • 66. So learn by doing
  • 67. Join the New Creative Generation
  • 68. “The Internet isn’t really a technology. It’s a belief system”
  • 69. @cape ♯demand8
  • 70. Appendix Extra Slides
  • 71. Europe is ahead of US and Japan despite itself
  • 72. It’s really expensive to break into the charts Top Mobile Apps 2014
  • 73. Network effects reinforce success
  • 74. We’ve had almost 60 years of evidence on how innovation economics can drive explosive social and economic value creation….. Semis Hardware Software Internet Crowd Networking Mobile Cloud
  • 75. 80-90% of radical innovations fail
  • 76. Forbes 2000 top 20 Countries 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Number of Companies on Forbes 2000 list
  • 77. 1. Do you have a public version of the GOV.uk dashboard?
  • 78. 2. Ok, how about you show us just one high volume service?
  • 79. 3. How do you benchmark vs your national GDP?
  • 80. 4. You spend at least $1bn pa on IT. Do you spend at least 5.5% with start-ups?
  • 81. 5. How digital literate is your board and senior team?
  • 82. 10k business ideas 1k firms started 100 VC funded 20 IPO 2 market leaders Professor Edmund Phelps Nobel Prize in Economics 2006 Less than 10% of business ideas even get started
  • 83. New entrepreneurs can come from anywhere Percentage of countries population who are interested in Entrepreneurship Data from the facebook API, looking at pages people like, posts and other demographic information
  • 84. In most countries, Ronaldo.. Ronaldo V Entrepreneurship 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 US India Brazil Philippines UK Indonesia Egypt Australia Canada Turkey Mexico South Africa Nigeria Italy Argentina France Saudi Arabia Poland Germany Vietnam Entrepreneurship Ronaldo
  • 85. You have to learn take risks Time Emotions Money
  • 86. Europe is in a state
  • 87. Especially in EU & North America
  • 88. And in Europe this is hardly a surprise
  • 89. But growth is somewhere else
  • 90. Worried about speaking out
  • 91. EU is growing slower than RoW
  • 92. 500m Spanish views 6 months
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