Agile by Example '16 Wisdom of the crowds

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  Scrum Masters insist on having the whole teams at plannings and other Scrum events. When team asks "why?" first answer is that The Scrum Guide says so. But why? Well..cause it's reasonable? In 2014 and 15 I made a series of experiments about the wisdom of the crowds in different groups (more than 100 people all together) trying to verify the F. Galton's discovery from the beginning of XX century (the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged). I added an aspect of diversity in possibilities of comparison during estimation to conclude for the Scrum teams about refinement process, plannings and daily meetings. We conducted the experiment during the meeting too (results on the last slides).
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  • 1. Wisdom of the crowds @RadekLont #abe16
  • 2. (1) (2) (3)
  • 3. DIVERSE GROUP ClibPDF - www.fastio.com Francis Galton (1907) INDEPENDENT DECISION (2004) (2004) (2011)
  • 4. DIVERSE GROUP INDEPENDENT DECISION WHAT IF…
  • 5. REAL: 112 MEAN: 116 MEDIAN: 115 120 votes 3,5% 90 107,5 125 142,5 160 guesses mean value real value
  • 6. REAL: 112 MEAN: 111,2 MEDIAN: 112 15 students REAL: 112 MEAN: 112,8 MEDIAN: 111 6 agilers
  • 7. REAL: 72 MEAN: 69,5 MEDIAN: 70 100 votes 2,7% 40 52,5 65 77,5 90 guesses mean value real value
  • 8. MEAN: 74 MEDIAN: 72 26 mix MEAN: 69 MEDIAN: 71 8 Dev Team REAL: 72
  • 9. 120 votes REAL: 828 MEAN: 903 MEDIAN: 760 9% 8% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 guesses mean value real value
  • 10. REAL: 828 MEAN: 519 MEDIAN: 417 6 agilers
  • 11. DIVERSE GROUP INDEPENDENT DECISION PROBE over DATA
  • 12. BACKLOG REFINEMENT
 is a PROCESS DEVOPS way is to EXPERIMENT Assure QUALITY at the source
  • 13. @RadekLont #abe16 Wisdom of AbE crowd?
  • 14. REAL: 112y 828m 75kg MEAN: 115 700 78 MEDIAN: 115 765 77 139 votes #AbE16 2,5% 15% 7,5% 4% 2,5%
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